Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.